Understanding Market Based Affordability continues to be a challenge for both dealers and the software companies who serve them. Monthly vehicle payments are influenced by a myriad of factors, not just price. And with all the recent shifts in auto finance, we wanted to find out: who's offering the better deal—the captives or the non-captives? Here's what we discovered:

Our Findings:

• On average, the best lending option for each car switched between captive and non-captive 1.66 times over the 50-day period.

• The largest payment decrease was the Chrysler Pacifica dropping $151 at the end of October.

• The largest payment increase was the Dodge Hornet rising $166 at the end of October.

• Although the individual swings in affordability are large, overall, the average payment difference when a change occurred was just $3.53, demonstrating how competitive today’s lending environment can be.

• Changes tended to cluster at three points each month: the first week, mid-month, and just before the final week.

The Data:

Below are charts showing the percentage of time the captive lender provided the best payment option across all scenarios. We broke down the data across September/October and calculated these averages. Here are some of the biggest movers:

Leases (% of time the captive had the best payment):

Dodge increased from 27% (Sep.) to 63% (Oct.)
Land Rover increased from 67% (Sep.) to 99% (Oct.)
Jeep increased from 50% (Sep.) to 82% (Oct.)

Loans (% of time the captive had the best payment):

Jeep increased from 6% (Sep.) to 78% (Oct.)
RAM increased from 0% (Sep.) to 45% (Oct.)
Chrysler increased from 14% (Sep.) to 57% (Oct.)

These insights give us a better understanding of how dynamic auto finance has become and how important it is to have access to the best payment option instantly. The minimal payment differences (as a global average) suggest that both captive and non-captive lenders remain highly competitive. However, the timing of when these shifts occur can impact financing decisions. And, as seen below, without real-time access to compare the best captive vs. non-captive programs, on any given day it could be the difference between a $1 and $100+ swing in monthly payment.